Spatial Effects on the Human Development Index in South Sulawesi: A Residual Bootstrap Spatial Durbin Model Approach

Siswanto Siswanto; Muh. Kemal Rydindo Irwan; Andi M. Alfin Baso

doi:10.30998/faktorexacta.v19i2.3446

Authors

Siswanto Siswanto Department of Statistics, Hasanuddin University Author
Muh. Kemal Rydindo Irwan Author
Andi M. Alfin Baso Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.30998/faktorexacta.v19i2.3446

Abstract

This study examines spatial dependence in the Human Development Index (HDI) of South Sulawesi Province using a Spatial Durbin Model (SDM), which captures both the direct effects of regional predictors and the indirect (spillover) effects from neighboring regions. To improve the stability of parameter inference under a limited number of observations, a residual bootstrap procedure is integrated into the SDM estimation. Using 2023 cross-sectional data for 24 districts/cities and four predictors—percentage of poor population, per capita expenditure, life expectancy, and expected years of schooling—the residual bootstrap SDM yields a lower Akaike Information Criterion and a higher coefficient of determination (AIC = 54.6039, R² = 0.9906) than the conventional SDM (AIC = 69.4245, R² = 0.9774). Per capita expenditure, life expectancy, and expected years of schooling significantly affect HDI directly, while per capita expenditure and expected years of schooling also show significant spatial spillover effects on neighboring regions. These findings indicate that incorporating a residual bootstrap into the SDM framework improves estimation stability under limited sample conditions, offering more reliable evidence to support spatially targeted regional human development policies in South Sulawesi.

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