Pengaruh Risiko Geopolitik, Kondisi Makroekonomi, dan Risiko Pembiayaan Bermasalah terhadap Profitabilitas Bank Syari’ah pada 6 Negara OKI

Zahro Nur Latifah; Eko Suprayitno

doi:10.30998/sosioekons.v18i2.4084

Authors

Zahro Nur Latifah UIN Maulana Malik Ibrahim Malang Author
Eko Suprayitno Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.30998/sosioekons.v18i2.4084

Keywords:

Perbankan Syari'ah, Risiko Geopolitik, Makroekonomi, Risiko Pembiayaan, Profitabilitas

Abstract

Perkembangan industri perbankan syariah di negara-negara Organisasi Kerja Sama Islam (OKI) tidak terlepas dari berbagai tantangan eksternal, seperti meningkatnya risiko geopolitik, perubahan kondisi makroekonomi, serta risiko pembiayaan bermasalah. Penelitian ini ditujukan untuk mengkaji pengaruh Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR), pertumbuhan Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB), inflasi, serta Non-Performing Financing (NPF) terhadap Return on Assets (ROA) yang menjadi standar pengukuran profitabilitas. Studi ini dilaksanakan terhadap 41 bank syariah full-fledged pada enam negara OKI, yakni Indonesia, Malaysia, Arab Saudi, Turki, Mesir, serta Tunisia, dalam rentang 2020–2024. Penelitian menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan regresi data panel yang dianalisis menggunakan EViews. Temuan mengimplikasikan bahwasanya risiko geopolitik, inflasi, dan NPF tidak berkontribusi signifikan atas ROA. Sementara itu, pertumbuhan PDB berdampak negatif secara signifikan atas profitabilitas bank syariah. Meski demikian, GPR, pertumbuhan PDB, inflasi, dan NPF secara simultan berdampak signifikan atas ROA. Temuan ini mengimplikasikan bahwasanya profitabilitas bank syariah di negara-negara OKI tidak hanya dipengaruhi oleh kondisi geopolitik, makroekonomi, dan kualitas pembiayaan, tetapi juga oleh berbagai faktor lain di luar model penelitian yang digunakan.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Abdeljawad, I., Rashid, M., Alia, M. A., Qushtom, R., Irshaid, M., & Sahyouni, A. (2024). Cushion hypothesis and credit risk: Islamic versus conventional banks from the MENA region. PLoS ONE, 19(7 July). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0306901

Adinugroho, M. B. (2026). Peran Inflasi Dalam Memoderasi Pengaruh Antara Non-Performing Financing Dan Dana Pihak Ketiga Terhadap Total Pembiayaan Pada Bus Di Indonesia Tahun 2015-2024. Universitas Islam Negeri Maulana Malik Ibrahim .

Alomaisi, N. (2020). Political Instability and Economic Growth in the State of Yemen Analysis Study. Journal of Public Administration and Governance, 10(2). https://doi.org/10.5296/jpag.v10i2.16311

Alsagr, N., & Almazor, S. F. V. H. (2020). Oil rent, geopolitical risk and banking sector performance. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 10(5). https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.9668

Andriani, E., Ashsifa, I., & Kuncoro, M. T. (2024). How geopolitical, credit and financial risks define ASEAN banks’ performance? Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen, Ekonomi, & Akuntansi (MEA), 8(2). https://doi.org/10.31955/mea.v8i2.4297

Anwar, & Nursan, M. (2025). Buku Ajar Analisis Regresi Data Panel Dengan Aplikasi Eviews . Pustaka Bangsa.

Astuti, R. P. (2022). Pengaruh CAR, FDR, NPF, Dan BOPO Terhadap Profitabilitas Perbankan Syariah. Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi Islam, 8(3), 3213. https://doi.org/10.29040/jiei.v8i3.6100

Basak, G. K., & Das, S. (2018). Understanding Cross-Sectional Dependence in Panel Data. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3167337

Borromeu, A. S. B. (2017). Analisis Dinamis Penyebab Inflasi Timor Leste. Universitas Atma Jaya Yogyakarta.

Byrne, D. (2025). What is geopolitical risk, and why is it important? Corporate Governance Institute.

Caldara, D., & Iacoviello, M. (2018). Measuring Geopolitical Risk. International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Combey, A., & Togbenou, A. (2017). The Bank Sector Performance and Macroeconomics Environment: Empirical Evidence in Togo. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 9(2). https://doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v9n2p180

Dewi, A. S. (2025). Pengaruh Net Profit Margin (NPM), non performing financing (NPF), Debt To Asset Ratio (DAR), Cost To Income Ratio (CIR), dan DPK terhadap Profitabilitas (ROA) Bank Syariah [Universitas Islam Negeri Maulana Malik Ibrahim ]. http://etheses.uin-malang.ac.id/74841/2/210503110098.pdf

Doǧan, M., & Yildiz, F. (2023). Testing the Factors that Determine the Profitability of Banks with a Dynamic Approach: Evidence from Turkey. Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, 12(1). https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2023-0010

García Matres, J. de O., & Viet Le, T. (2021). The Impact of Money Supply on the Economy: A Panel Study on Selected Countries. Journal of Economic Science Research, 4(4). https://doi.org/10.30564/jesr.v4i4.3782

Gazi, Md. A. I., Karim, R., Senathirajah, A. R. bin S., Ullah, A. K. M. M., Afrin, K. H., & Nahiduzzaman, Md. (2024). Bank-Specific and Macroeconomic Determinants of Profitability of Islamic Shariah-Based Banks: Evidence from New Economic Horizon Using Panel Data. Economies, 12(3), 66. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12030066

Ghenimi, A., Chaibi, H., & Omri, M. A. (2024). Risk and performance of Islamic and conventional banks under COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from MENA region. Arab Gulf Journal of Scientific Research, 42(4). https://doi.org/10.1108/AGJSR-03-2023-0098

Himma, N. L., & Atmanti, H. D. (2025). Profitability Drivers In Indonesian Islamic And Conventional Banks: Macroecoomic And Microeconomic Perspective. El DinaR: Jurnal Keuangan Dan Perbankan Syariah, 13(1). https://doi.org/10.18860/ed.v13i1.32107

Ikramina, C., & Sukmaningrum, P. S. (2021). Macroeconomic Factors On Non-Performing Financing In Indonesian Islamic Bank: Error Correction Model Approach. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Bisnis Islam (Journal of Islamic Economics and Business), 7(1). https://doi.org/10.20473/jebis.v7i1.23647

Irawan, F., & Safuan, S. (2005). Kebijakan Moneter, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi dan Inflasi: Pengujian Hipotesis Ekspektasi Rasional dengan Analisis VAR. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Pembangunan Indonesia, 6(1), 17–38. https://doi.org/10.7454/jepi.v6i1.2250

Karisma, D. P., Qolbi, F. ‘Ainul, & Rosyadi, I. (2020). Macro Variable Effect Analysis and NonPerforming Financing (NPF) Against the Return on Asset (ROA) Islamic Banks in Indonesia Year 2008- 2017. Journal of Islamic Economic Laws, 32–47. https://doi.org/10.23917/jisel.v3i1.10170

Khaddafi, M., Panjaitan, S. P., & Tumangger, K. I. (2025). Dampak Ketidakpastian Ekonomi Global terhadap Strategi Diversifikasi Portofolio di Indonesia. Jurnal Intelek Insan Cendikia, 2(7).

Khan, M. A. (2014). Impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) On Eoneconomic Development.

Kuswahariani, W., Siregar, H., & Syarifuddin, F. (2020). Analisis Non Performing Financing (Npf) Secara Umum Dan Segmen Mikro Pada Tiga Bank Syariah Nasional Di Indonesia. Jurnal Aplikasi Bisnis Dan Manajemen. https://doi.org/10.17358/jabm.6.1.26

Mashilal, & Afendi, A. (2025). Dampak Ketidakpastian Kebijakan Ekonomi Global Terhadap Pembiayaan: Studi Bank Umum Syariah di Indonesia. Velocity: Journal of Sharia Finance and Banking, 5(2), 166–181. https://doi.org/10.28918/velocity.v5i2.12466

Maswar, M. (2017). Analisis Statistik Deskriptif Nilai UAS Ekonomitrika Mahasiswa dengan Program SPSS 23 & Eviews 8.1. Jurnal Pendidikan Islam Indonesia, 1(2). https://doi.org/10.35316/jpii.v1i2.54

Mayasari, F., & Mahinshapuri, Y. F. (2022). Pengaruh Inflasi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi & Bisnis, 7(2), 119–132.

Mohsen, A. S., Hoang, F. A., & Tariq, A. F. (2022). Effect of Interest Rates on Economic Growth in Bangladesh. Journal of Economics, 6(1). https://doi.org/10.53819/81018102t5086

Phan, D. H. B., Tran, V. T., & Iyke, B. N. (2022). Geopolitical risk and bank stability. Finance Research Letters, 46. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2021.102453

Prabowo, A. (2025). Studi Literatur: Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Profitabilitas Bank di Indonesia. Jurnal Penelitian Ilmiah Multidisipliner, 2(4), 1968–1973.

Rusyda, D. S., Kholmi, M., & Mawardi, F. D. (2023). Pengaruh Non-Performing Financing Pembiayaan Mudharabah dan Musyarakah Terhadap Profitabilitas dengan Dimoderasi oleh Good Corporate Governance Pada Bank Umum Syariah di Indonesia. E-Journal Ekonomi Bisnis Dan Akuntansi, 10(1). https://doi.org/10.19184/ejeba.v10i1.38084

Saefulloh, M. H. M., Fahlevi, M. R., & Centauri, S. A. (2023). Pengaruh Inflasi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi: Perspektif Indonesia. Jurnal Acitya Ardana, 3(1).

Simatupang, H. J., Purwanti, L., & Mardiati, E. (2019). Determinants of capital structures based on the Pecking Order Theory and Trade-off Theory. Jurnal Keuangan Dan Perbankan, 23(1). https://doi.org/10.26905/jkdp.v23i1.2579

Simorangkir. (2004). Pengantar Lembaga Keuangan Bank & Non Bank (A. Nazwar & S. Mansyur, Eds.; 2nd ed.). Ghalia Indonesia.

Sjarief, L., Abdul Ghoni, M., & Affandi, M. T. (2023). The role of financial performance on the profitability of Indonesian Islamic banks. Jurnal Ekonomi & Keuangan Islam. https://doi.org/10.20885/jeki.vol9.iss2.art9

Sobol, I., Dopierała, Ł., & Wysiński, P. (2023). Is the profitability of Islamic and conventional banks driven by the same factors?—A study of banking in the Middle East. PLoS ONE, 18(8 August). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0289264

Sukirno, S. (2001). Pengantar Teori Makroekonomi (kedua). RajaGrafindo Persada.

Suripto, Sugiono, A., & Dasuki, H. (2023). Comparing the resilience of Sharia and conventional banking to the financial crisis in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Banks and Bank Systems, 18(3). https://doi.org/10.21511/bbs.18(3).2023.16

Tan, Y., & Floros, C. (2012). Bank profitability and inflation: The case of China. Journal of Economic Studies, 39(6). https://doi.org/10.1108/01443581211274610

Wang, Z. (2023). A Literature Study on Business Cycle Theory. BCP Business & Management, 40. https://doi.org/10.54691/bcpbm.v40i.4395

Yao, H., Haris, M., & Tariq, G. (2018). Profitability determinants of financial institutions: Evidence from banks in pakistan. International Journal of Financial Studies, 6(2). https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs6020053

Yıldırım, F., & Berkman, A. N. (2022). The Impact Of Geopolitical Risk Index On The Profitability Performance Of The Banking Sector. Türk Sosyal Bilimler Araştırmaları Dergisi, 7(2), 89–100.

Yokoyama, E. P., & Mahardika, D. P. K. (2019). Pengaruh Non Performing Financing (Npf), Return On Asset (Roa), Dan Financing To Deposit Ratio (Fdr) Terhadap Capital Adequacy Ratio (Car). Jurnal Ilmiah MEA (Manajemen, Ekonomi, & Akuntansi), 3(2).

Zhang, X., & Duchesne, É. (2022). Introduction for the special issue geopolitical risks and transnational corporations: the case of the Ukrainian Crisis. Transnational Corporations Review, 14(4). https://doi.org/10.1080/19186444.2022.2141050