GEOPOLITICAL ENERGY SHOCKS, RESIN PRICES DYNAMICS, AND INDUSTRIAL IMPLICATIONS IN EAST AND SOUTHEAST ASIA: AN ECONOMETRIC AND POLICY ANALYSIS TO 2030
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.30998/c23dq735Keywords:
ASEAN Economies, Energy Price Shocks, Geopolitical Risk, Petrochemical Industry, Price Transmission, Resin Market, VAR-GARCHAbstract
ABSTRACT
This study investigates the impact of geopolitical energy shocks on resin price dynamics in East and Southeast Asia and explores their implications through 2030. Escalating conflicts in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran, have increased volatility in global energy markets, disrupted petrochemical supply chains, and raised production costs for resin products. Because many Asian economies rely heavily on imported energy and petrochemical feedstocks, they are especially vulnerable to such disruptions. Using a hybrid methodology, the study combines econometric analysis and policy assessment. Monthly data from 2015–2026 are analyzed using Vector Autoregression (VAR) and GARCH models to examine price transmission and volatility spillovers from crude oil and naphtha to resin markets, including C5/C9 and epoxy resins. A geopolitical shock index is incorporated to measure the effects of conflict-related disruptions. The findings reveal a strong and asymmetric transmission of energy price increases to resin prices, with volatility intensifying during periods of geopolitical instability. Forecasts to 2030 indicate that continued disruptions in major energy transit routes could raise resin prices by 15–35% above baseline projections, creating substantial challenges for ASEAN manufacturing industries. The study highlights the need for policies that reduce feedstock dependence, diversify supply chains, and strengthen industrial resilience. By integrating energy economics and supply chain analysis, it provides empirical evidence and practical policy recommendations to support industrial competitiveness and energy security in emerging Asian economies.
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